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Air travel demand in India will fall: IATA

According to International Air Transport Association (IATA), demand for air travel in India will fall following the recent terror attacks in Mumbai. Maintaining that the outlook for India's airline industry for the next year was bleak, Giovanni Bisignani, Director General, IATA said, “The chronic industry crisis will continue into 2009 with USD 2.5 billion in losses. We face the worst revenue environment in 50 years or since the Second World War.”

Bisgnani, who in Geneva released the organisation's annual financial forecast and reports on industry trends, also said airline operators in the Asia-Pacific region, will see losses more than doubling from USD 500 million now to USD 1.1 billion in 2009. IATA has predicted a fall of three per cent in passenger markets next year worldwide, and a five per cent drop in the cargo sector. He also said the global industry losses forecast for 2008 calendar year stood at USD five billion, a slight improvement from the earlier prediction of USD 5.2 billion.

Bisignani urged the governments of India and China, both two emerging economies, to initiate corrective steps, saying the aviation sector would witness further slowdown in 2009. According to him, one step the Indian government should take is to create the Airport Economic Regulatory Authority (AERA) - the legislation which was cleared over a month ago. The AERA Bill, awaiting presidential assent, empowers the government to fix tariff structures and ensure a level-playing field for airlines.

“The region's largest market Japan is already in recession and the two main growth markets - China and India - are expected to deliver a major shift in performance. Growth in China will slow as a result of a drop in its exports. India's carriers, which are already struggling with high taxes and insufficient infrastructure, can expect a drop in demand following the tragic terror incidents (Mumbai attacks) in November,” said Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA in a press statement. However, the European carriers will experience a ten-fold increase in losses, which are expected to touch USD one billion, while airlines of the Middle East and Latin America will see losses doubling to USD 200 million.

Echoing similar sentiments, Bisignani added, “For governments, it's a wake up call to stop crazy taxation, fix the infrastructure, give airlines normal commercial freedoms and regulate monopoly suppliers. There could be five percent (1.7 million) job cuts worldwide in the aviation industry, which employs over 32 million people.” “Moreover, substantial numbers of jobs are likely to be lost and as a result, damage consumer incomes and could further affect people's confidence,” stated Pearce.
 
 

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